Taking a look at 5 of the largest betting surprises from the 2023 NFL season. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
2023 NFL betting surprises
With the NFL playoffs prepared to start this weekend, we thought we’d have a look again on the largest betting surprises from the 2023 common season.
Final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl rivals, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, turned out to be resoundingly underwhelming in 2023, whereas a lower in scoring across the league led to wacky outcomes all season.
Listed below are 5 of the largest betting surprises from the 2023 NFL common season.
#5: Texans triumph as Jaguars collapse
The Houston Texans completed 2022 at 3-13-1, the second-worst document in the whole league. They drafted QB C.J. Stroud with the second general decide and teamed him up with first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and several other different first-timers on the roster and workers.
Houston went 10-7 and completed with their finest document since 2019
Somewhat than use the excuse of youthful ignorance, Houston went 10-7 and completed with their finest document since 2019. Their Week 18 win ensured that they might make the playoffs, however didn’t assure an AFC South title because the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been 9-7 on the time, nonetheless wanted to play the following day.
Jacksonville had been as little as -1000 (90.9% implied chance) to win the division after beating the Texans in Week 12, however an premature harm to QB Trevor Lawrence and an general decline in play plagued them as they misplaced 5 of their final six video games. Their Week 18 loss to the 6-11 Tennessee Titans meant that they misplaced not solely the division, however missed the playoffs fully.
#4: Buffalo’s blistering turnaround
The Buffalo Payments had gained the AFC East three years straight and have been +120 favorites to take action once more in the beginning of the season. Nevertheless, after falling to 6-6, they discovered themselves at +950 to assert the title, effectively behind the Miami Dolphins at -1550, and have been +460 to even attain the playoffs.
Buoyed by a change at offensive coordinator and adjustment to their on-field identification, the Payments gained 5 consecutive video games and beat the Dolphins 21-14 within the closing recreation of the 12 months to lock up the AFC East title and the second seed within the AFC.
Oddsmakers have positioned the Payments because the third almost certainly workforce to win the Tremendous Bowl following their dramatic late-season turnaround. They haven’t made it that far since they misplaced 4 straight Tremendous Bowls within the Nineties, however the AFC is vast open and that is pretty much as good of an opportunity as they’ve had lately.
#3: Joe Flacco saves the day
Joe Flacco made among the best playoff runs ever and topped it off with a Tremendous Bowl ring in 2012. But early this 12 months, he was sitting on his sofa, watching the video games like all peculiar fan.
last-ditch effort to avoid wasting their season
In the meantime, the Cleveland Browns have been actually struggling on the quarterback spot. Deshaun Watson and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson each struggled and obtained injured, whereas PJ Walker performed just like the worst QB within the league. The Browns’ desperation led them to name Flacco to return in as a last-ditch effort to avoid wasting their season.
The Browns unsurprisingly misplaced his debut and fell to +7000 odds at main sportsbooks, however Flacco then led them to 4 straight wins and helped information them to the fifth seed within the playoffs. They’re now +3100 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Whereas the Browns are nonetheless 4 wins away from a Tremendous Bowl title, the wily veteran already made the magic occur as soon as and might need one other run in him.
#2: Prime time prints cash
NFL betting is each an artwork and a science, and almost unimaginable to grasp. That’s why the trick of blindly betting the underneath in prime time video games got here as such a shock throughout the 2023 NFL common season.
Prime time unders during the last 5 years are 149-99-1 (60.1%) and hit at nearly a 70% clip in 2023. Utilizing 52.4% because the breakeven mark for traces with -110 odds, the prime time underneath was effectively within the inexperienced all 12 months.
Potential explanations for this pattern embrace the added strain of the nationwide stage, various relaxation occasions, and a leaguewide decline in offensive manufacturing, however regardless, this proved to be among the best betting methods within the NFL.
#1: $5 to $489k landing parlay
Successful parlays is actually arduous. That’s why sportsbooks promote them so closely, because the revenue margins are a lot wider and so they know folks might be prepared to take the additional threat due to the joy.
One DraftKings bettor will need to have missed that memo, as towards all odds, he cashed a 14-leg parlay that turned $5 into $489,383.01. All 14 legs have been anytime landing scorers, culminating with Christian McCaffrey on Christmas Day.
The bettor recorded himself watching the ultimate recreation, jubilantly celebrating together with his household when McCaffrey crossed the purpose line. Protected to say, he had a fairly nice Christmas because of NFL betting.