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VegasSlotsOnline Information has put collectively 5 NFL betting traits from final season that will serve you properly going into this season. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
NFL betting is again!
The 2023 NFL season is only a week and a few change away, and that signifies that sports activities betting is about to take off as soon as once more.
Soccer season has confirmed to be the busiest time of the 12 months for sportsbooks. The American Gaming Affiliation estimated that over 16 million People would wager over $50bn on the Tremendous Bowl between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, and much more states have opened their markets since then.
However earlier than the NFL season can correctly resume, the playing public should pay attention to THESE betting traits from the 2022 season.
High 5 NFL betting traits
#1: Don’t be fooled by the highest groups
Solely two of the 5 groups with one of the best information within the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Payments, made cash in unfold betting and the Payments generated a revenue of lower than 2% (assuming -110 odds).
When factoring within the postseason, the Payments additionally dipped into the purple, that means that, of the highest groups, solely the Niners had been worthwhile from begin to end final season.
These 5 groups (and their outcomes in opposition to the unfold) had been:
- Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: 14-3 file, 6-10-1 ATS
- Philadelphia Eagles: 14-3 file, 8-9 ATS
- Buffalo Payments: 13-3 file, 8-7-1 ATS
- Minnesota Vikings: 13-4 file, 7-9-1 ATS
- San Francisco 49ers: 13-4 file, 11-6 ATS
The Chiefs specifically stand out. They received the Tremendous Bowl and have been one of the best crew within the league over the previous half-decade, however they had been a bottom-10 crew in opposition to the unfold.
oddsmakers reap the benefits of the nice religion the Chiefs and different nice groups construct
The takeaway? The oddsmakers reap the benefits of the nice religion the Chiefs and different nice groups construct and transfer the road larger than it ought to be.
#4: Guess the Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have completed within the high 5 in performances in opposition to the unfold in every of the previous three seasons. That features two third-place finishes in 2022 and 2021 and a fifth-place end in 2020.
Together with the playoffs, the Bengals have put collectively a 36-19-1 file in opposition to the unfold. Assuming -110 odds for each outing and a $10 wager on each sport, that signifies that Bengals unfold bettors could be up just below 25%, or 1.25x their funding. That’s an exceptional return for blindly choosing the identical crew with no additional thought.
The Bengals are in a sticky state of affairs to start out the 12 months as Joe Burrow recovers from a calf pressure, however don’t rely them out from being amongst the league’s finest when he will get again on the sphere.
#3: Fade Bryce Younger?
The final three quarterbacks taken first general—Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray—are 0-2-1 straight up of their NFL debuts and are 0-3 in opposition to the unfold. That’s dangerous information for Bryce Younger, who was taken first general by the Carolina Panthers earlier in the summertime.
current historical past doesn’t assist a wager on the Panthers
Younger and crew are 3.5-point underdogs on the street in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. That quantity crosses a major worth (three factors) and subsequently provides extra worth to their line, however current historical past doesn’t assist a wager on the Panthers.
That mentioned, the Panthers had been 2-0 in opposition to the unfold when taking part in the Falcons final 12 months and lined by a median of 6.75 factors—as soon as by one level, and as soon as by 12.5 factors. Considered one of these traits will lose out in Week 1.
#2: Brock Purdy the magic man
Excluding an NFC Championship Recreation through which he tore his UCL and was unable to throw the ball, Brock Purdy ripped off a 7-1 file in opposition to the unfold as a starter for the 49ers.
His first begin got here in a 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins in early December, which sparked an eight-game win streak for the eventual NFC runners-up. His solely wholesome non-cover was a three-point win over the Las Vegas Raiders on a 10-point line.
Purdy and the Niners are 2.5-point favorites in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. There may be loads of uncertainty surrounding the San Fran QB, nonetheless, as he will likely be getting back from surgical procedure on his throwing arm and has to tackle a menacing Steelers protection.
Pittsburgh, for what it’s price, was additionally glorious ATS in 2022, ending the 12 months 10-6-1.
#1: Talking of the Steelers…
T.J. Watt is the face of the fashionable Metal Curtain protection, and with good cause. Pittsburgh not solely went 8-2 straight up in video games Watt appeared in final season, but it surely additionally went 8-2 in opposition to the unfold and lined in 4 straight outings to shut out the season.
a head coach in Mike Tomlin that doesn’t have a dropping season on file in 16 years with the crew
Expectations nonetheless aren’t that prime for the Steelers due to the congestion within the AFC North offered by the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, and, to a lesser extent, the Cleveland Browns. However it is a very proficient crew with a head coach in Mike Tomlin that doesn’t have a dropping season on file in 16 years with the crew.
Kenny Pickett had an ideal passer ranking and led touchdowns on all 5 drives he performed within the preseason. His potential to ascend the quarterback rankings in 2023 will likely be instrumental in figuring out how far the Steelers progress.
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