Top Tips for Predicting the Winner

Residence-field benefit

As everyone knows, home-field benefit is a significant factor in sports activities leagues across the globe. Within the English Premier League, as an example, house groups win round 49% of video games compared to 29% of away groups. So, does this identical profit apply to the host nation of Eurovision, on this yr’s case the UK?

At first look, internet hosting the Eurovision Tune Contest doesn’t seem to have a lot affect in your probabilities of successful. The host nation has received simply six of the 64 competitions to this point, similar to round 9% of the victors as a result of 4 joint champions in 1969.

half of the 52 nations which have ever participated within the competitors have received

That stated, it’s necessary to notice that every competitors encompasses a huge variety of nations – a quantity that has elevated over time. Solely half of the 52 nations which have ever participated within the competitors have received, of which hosts make up 19% – an attention-grabbing determine on condition that solely 26 nations have really hosted it.

The primary win by a bunch got here in 1956 by Switzerland, adopted by Spain, Luxembourg, Israel, and Eire. Actually, Eire famously grew to become the one nation to win Eurovision 3 times in a row within the ‘90s, twice because the host. The final got here courtesy of the singing duo Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan in 1994.

Apparently although, no host nation has received Eurovision since Eire’s final victory in 1994, when the variety of contributors shot up by seven – the most important improve because the first version of the occasion. This implies, as is probably apparent, that the bigger variety of nations has made it harder (if not inconceivable thus far) for a bunch to win.

In the end, based mostly on the information, it appears the UK has simply as a lot probability as the remainder of the sphere to safe victory this yr no matter its internet hosting duties. The nation will hope that it could possibly construct on its second-place end in 2022 by means of Mae Muller. At odds of +5000, it definitely may very well be price a punt:

The successful profile

For each Eurovision, a single winner should emerge. That can assist you predict the attainable nationality, age, and gender of that victor, VSO Information has taken a have a look at the Eurovision acts which have received the competitors by the best factors margin in historical past. Primarily, these are the most effective Eurovision winners of all time.

the best successful margin got here from Alexander Rybak of Norway

The common factors margin of all of our high winners is 101 factors, that means all of them crushed the competitors. Of our high ten winners, the best successful margin got here from Alexander Rybak of Norway, who on the age of 23 in 2009 received by a staggering 169 factors.

The one nation to pop up greater than as soon as in that high checklist is Ukraine. The reigning champion is at odds of +750 to take victory for the second time in a row this yr. The nation received final yr with Kalush Orchestra by a factors margin of 147, the second-highest of all time. Ukraine additionally made the checklist in 2016 for securing a 71-point lead with Jamala and her tune 1944

If Ukraine’s earlier success doesn’t tempt you, then there are another components to contemplate. The commonest tune sort among the many high winners are ballads, which secured wins in 2012, 2016, and 2017 with a median margin of 109. This yr, Italy may very well be an outdoor shot with its ballad entry from Marco Mengoni, Due Vite (+5000):

In regard to gender, the highest winners are evenly break up between women and men. In the meantime, the typical age is about 30 years outdated. Of the highest contenders for Eurovision 2023, Kaarija is the closest to this age. The 29-year-old Finnish singer is hoping to set the stage alight with rap pop hit Cha Cha Cha. He’s the second-favorite to take the win at +260:

Notably, one of many main contenders for 2023 really seems on our high winners checklist. Loreen, Sweden’s hopeful this yr, has already received Eurovision as soon as in 2012 by a factors margin of 113. This yr she is going to hope that her new tune Tattoo will see the identical success. Sportsbooks definitely assume it would, putting her favourite at odds of -163:

File of success

Now we’ve checked out home-field benefit and successful traits, it’s time for the only marker of success – previous wins by nationality.

Helped by its spate of three successive wins within the Nineteen Nineties, Eire is essentially the most profitable competitor in Eurovision historical past. The Emerald Isle has taken house the trophy a file seven instances. Sadly, this data will do little to assist us in predicting this yr’s winner on condition that Irish hopeful Wild Youth was knocked out within the semi-final this week.

Sweden has received Eurovision six instances, the primary in 1975

Subsequent up, the checklist of successful nations takes us to Scandinavia. Sweden has received Eurovision six instances, the primary in 1975 and the final coming seven years in the past by means of singer-songwriter Jamala. As talked about above, Sweden’s hopeful this yr has already contributed to that win tally together with her victory in 2012. Sportsbooks imagine she has a very good shot on the identical success in 2023.

After Sweden, the following greatest nations are just a little more durable to separate. 4 nations are tied with the third-highest variety of wins at 5 every. This consists of the Netherlands, France, UK, and Luxembourg. Of those, solely France and the UK will participate within the Grand Last this yr, and France has the most effective probability of victory based on sportsbooks. La Zarra has odds of +1700 to take the win:

As an outdoor shot this yr, Israel has 4 wins in Eurovision historical past, the final of these coming in 2018 by means of Netta Barzilai with a 95-point margin. The nation is thru to the Grand Last once more in 2023 with the 22-year-old pop star Noa Kirel and her hit tune, Unicorn. Sportsbooks have priced her at +1800 to take the trophy:

So, there you’ve got it – all the recommendation you would probably have to make the most effective betting picks for this yr’s Eurovision Tune Contest. Have enjoyable, and take a look at VSO Information’ article on the most effective Eurovision-themed on-line slots.